Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases

Salazar, Pablo M. De; Niehus, René; Taylor, Aimee R.; Buckee, Caroline O.; Lipsitch, Marc

doi:10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495

2020

DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495

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Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases

Pablo M. De Salazar

¹

,

René Niehus

²

,

Aimee R. Taylor

³

et al.

Abstract: Cases from the ongoing outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exported from mainland China can lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other populations.

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Cited by 85 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Therefore our estimates should be viewed as a lower bound on the number of imported infections, given possible mild and asymptomatic infections. Even given this, we estimate that Indonesiawhich has reported 0 cases to date-would be expected to have more cases than this, in line with estimates from Lipsitch et al 6 . In addition, in places that have identified some cases-such as Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, the US and Malaysia-we estimate that the imported number of cases from Wuhan is even higher than those reported.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Estimating number of global importations of COVID-19 from Wuhan, risk of transmission outside mainland China and COVID-19 introduction index between countries outside mainland China

Sun

¹

,

Dickens

²

,

Chen

³

et al. 2020

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Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

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“…Therefore our estimates should be viewed as a lower bound on the number of imported infections, given possible mild and asymptomatic infections. Even given this, we estimate that Indonesiawhich has reported 0 cases to date-would be expected to have more cases than this, in line with estimates from Lipsitch et al 6 . In addition, in places that have identified some cases-such as Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, the US and Malaysia-we estimate that the imported number of cases from Wuhan is even higher than those reported.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Estimating number of global importations of COVID-19 from Wuhan, risk of transmission outside mainland China and COVID-19 introduction index between countries outside mainland China

Sun

¹

,

Dickens

²

,

Chen

³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Get access via publisher Add to dashboard Cite

Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

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“…14 Several recent reports also highlighted the difficulty to detect Covid-19 cases: about two thirds of the cases exported from mainland China remained undetected worldwide, 24 and the detection capacity varied from 11% in low surveillance countries to 40% in high surveillance countries. 25,26 Consistent with these studies, our analyses and extensive simulations also indicated an ascertainment rate of 14%-41% in Wuhan ( Table S2 ). Increasing evidence also suggested that the asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases can be infectious to the susceptible population, 17-19 imposing a substantial challenge to the epidemic control.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

Wang

¹

,

Liu

²

,

Hao

³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

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“…This allows monitoring of the ongoing situation in China, which may yet see a second wave of the epidemic. Our estimate of the true epidemic curve is supported by other studies (7, 8, 21), and projected case numbers would change with any change in this estimate. Even if the true number of cases in China is 10 or 100 times that reported, only a fraction of the entire population of China has been infected, which leaves a possibility of a subsequent wave of the epidemic.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

The effectiveness of full and partial travel bans against COVID-19 spread in Australia for travellers from China

Costantino

¹

,

Heslop

²

,

MacIntyre

³

2020

Preprint

Get access via publisher Add to dashboard Cite

Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

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