Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

Liu, Tao; Hu, Jianxiong; Xiao, Jianpeng; He, Guanhao; Kang, Min; Rong, Zuhua; Lin, Lifeng; Zhong, Haojie; Huang, Qiong; Deng, Aiping; Zeng, Weilin; Tan, Xiaohua; Zeng, Siqing; Zhu, Zhihua; Li, Jiansen; Gong, Dexin; Wan, Donghua; Chen, Shaowei; Guo, Lingchuan; Li, Yan; Sun, Limei; Liang, Wenjia; Song, Tie; He, Jianfeng; Ma, Wenjun

doi:10.1101/2020.01.25.919787

2020

DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.25.919787

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Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

Tao Liu,

Jianxiong Hu,

Jianpeng Xiao

et al.

Abstract: Rationale: Several studies have estimated basic production number of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). However, the time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP during the outbreak remain unclear. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the basic and time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP across China, and compared them with SARS. Methods: Data on NCP cases by February 7, 2020 were collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Guangdong … Show more

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Cited by 378 publications

(271 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In the 22 countries or cities, before the lockdown, the basic reproduction numbers were between 1.3884-4.1926; after the lockdown, the basic reproduction numbers were between 1.2141-3.7829; the average basic reproduction numbers were between 1.5286-3.8067. The results were in good agreement with many existing results [18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. The basic reproduction numbers in the 22 countries or cities decreased significantly after the lockdown, which suggested that lockdown measures indeed suppressed the epidemics.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

Modelling the effect of lockdown on COVID-19 pandemic in 22 countries and cities

Li

¹

,

Wu

²

,

Wang

³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

show abstract

“…In the 22 countries or cities, before the lockdown, the basic reproduction numbers were between 1.3884-4.1926; after the lockdown, the basic reproduction numbers were between 1.2141-3.7829; the average basic reproduction numbers were between 1.5286-3.8067. The results were in good agreement with many existing results [18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. The basic reproduction numbers in the 22 countries or cities decreased significantly after the lockdown, which suggested that lockdown measures indeed suppressed the epidemics.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

Modelling the effect of lockdown on COVID-19 pandemic in 22 countries and cities

Li

¹

,

Wu

²

,

Wang

³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Get access via publisher Add to dashboard Cite

Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

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“…Instead, the model parameters were estimated in a dynamic manner in our study. This is in line with the observation of dynamic transmission properties of the virus 15 . Secondly, the significance of the model largely depends on the accuracy of estimated parameters.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Modelling-based evaluation of the effect of quarantine control by the Chinese government in the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak

Zhou

¹

,

Wu

²

,

Yu

³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Get access via publisher Add to dashboard Cite

Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

show abstract

“…Mean incubation period is taken to be 5 days (95% CI 4.2-6.0 days), while the 95th percentile of the distribution was 10.6 days (95% CI 8.5-14.1 days) and 99th percentile 15.4 days (99% CI 11.7-22.5 days) [ 36 ]. Similar numbers were reported in earlier studies with less patients included [ 24 , 53 – 55 ]. Log-normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of incubation period among nodes.…”

Section: Methodsologysupporting

confidence: 90%

Simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic on the social network of Slovenia: Estimating the intrinsic forecast uncertainty

Zaplotnik

¹

,

Gavrić

²

,

Medic

³

2020

Get access via publisher Add to dashboard Cite

Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

show abstract

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