The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China

Backer, Jantien A.; Klinkenberg, Don; Wallinga, Jacco

doi:10.1101/2020.01.27.20018986

2020

DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.27.20018986

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The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China

Jantien A. Backer

¹

,

Don Klinkenberg

²

,

Jacco Wallinga

³

Abstract: Currently, a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV causes an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Wuhan, China. Little is known about its epidemiological characteristics. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 (5.6 -7.7, 95% CI) days, ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5 th to 97.5 th percentile). These values help to inform case definitions for 2019-nCoV and appropriate durations for quarantine.

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Cited by 423 publications

(555 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Our estimates are in agreement with the report of Li et al [2]. A recent study by Backer et al [17] noted a similar finding in their analysis of the incubation period for 88 cases (including 63 Wuhan residents). However, the estimates of Backer et al for the model that included Wuhan residents were subject to overestimation as the lower bounds for Wuhan residents-who had unknown left exposure dates-were fixed in their analysis.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data

Linton

¹

,

Kobayashi

²

,

Yang

³

et al. 2020

JCM

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Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

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“…Our estimates are in agreement with the report of Li et al [2]. A recent study by Backer et al [17] noted a similar finding in their analysis of the incubation period for 88 cases (including 63 Wuhan residents). However, the estimates of Backer et al for the model that included Wuhan residents were subject to overestimation as the lower bounds for Wuhan residents-who had unknown left exposure dates-were fixed in their analysis.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data

Linton

¹

,

Kobayashi

²

,

Yang

³

et al. 2020

JCM

Get access via publisher Add to dashboard Cite

Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

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“…An accurate estimation of the incubation period is vital in establishing the optimal duration for quarantine. Our estimation of a median incubation period of 4.2 days is in line with other studies, [26][27][28] which is also within the range reported for SARS-CoV-1 (3.8-6.9 days) and MERS CoV (5.0-6.9 days). [29][30][31] Our observed 95th percentile of incubation periods of 14.0 days also supports the widely adopted quarantine period of 14 days.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Epidemiological characteristics of the first 100 cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China, a city with a stringent containment policy

Lai

¹

,

Ng

²

,

Wong

³

et al. 2020

International Journal of Epidemiology

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Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

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“…The most common radiologic findings were bilateral consolidation and pneumonia [78,79]. We found the average incubation period of COVID-19 infection to be less than 6 days which is broadly consistent with previously reported estimates [23,29,80,81]. The right tail of the 99% CI of the incubation period for COVID-19 was less than 7 days (6.59).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Khalili

¹

,

Karamouzian

²

,

Nasiri

³

et al. 2020

Get access via publisher Add to dashboard Cite

Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.

show abstract

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