Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.
 2015
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1522126112
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Reconciling divergent estimates of oil and gas methane emissions

Daniel Zavala‐Araiza
1
,
David Lyon
2
,
Ramón A. Alvarez
3
et al.

Abstract: Published estimates of methane emissions from atmospheric data (top-down approaches) exceed those from source-based inventories (bottom-up approaches), leading to conflicting claims about the climate implications of fuel switching from coal or petroleum to natural gas. Based on data from a coordinated campaign in the Barnett Shale oil and gas-producing region of Texas, we find that top-down and bottom-up estimates of both total and fossil methane emissions agree within statistical confidence intervals (relativ… Show more

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Cited by 348 publications

(319 citation statements)
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“…Its estimate of the total CH 4 emissions is 2.3 times higher than the EPA GHGI’s estimate for total CH 4 from the oil and NG production sites (Figure b). Similar discrepancies between bottom-up inventories and measurements have been reported in recent studies. ,,,,, Herein, our results suggest that CH 4 emissions from the high emitters (national mean: 17 kg/h/site (CI: 10–25); range: 7.2–1100), which account for 50% (CI: 32–75%) of cumulative emissions (Figure a), are primarily responsible for the discrepancy between our predicted total CH 4 and the EPA GHGI estimate. That is, the nonparametric model results match the EPA GHGI only when we exclude the contribution of the top 5% of high emitting sites.…”
Section: Resultssupporting
confidence: 88%
“…Similarly, our estimate of 115 Mg/h (CI: 78–150) for 2015 CH 4 emissions for NG producing sites in Pennsylvania and West Virginia overlaps with a previous estimate by Omara et al for these sources in 2014 (144 Mg/h (CI: 70–190)). Finally, our national estimate for total CH 4 emissions from NG production sites (830 Mg/h (CI: 530–1200)) compares well with recent estimates by Alvarez et al (870 Mg/h (CI: 680–1080, Figure b) that were based on site-level measurements but utilized a different extrapolation approach incorporating parametrized nonlinear models …”
Section: Resultssupporting
confidence: 84%
See 1 more Smart Citation
Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.
show abstract
“…Its estimate of the total CH 4 emissions is 2.3 times higher than the EPA GHGI’s estimate for total CH 4 from the oil and NG production sites (Figure b). Similar discrepancies between bottom-up inventories and measurements have been reported in recent studies. ,,,,, Herein, our results suggest that CH 4 emissions from the high emitters (national mean: 17 kg/h/site (CI: 10–25); range: 7.2–1100), which account for 50% (CI: 32–75%) of cumulative emissions (Figure a), are primarily responsible for the discrepancy between our predicted total CH 4 and the EPA GHGI estimate. That is, the nonparametric model results match the EPA GHGI only when we exclude the contribution of the top 5% of high emitting sites.…”
Section: Resultssupporting
confidence: 88%
“…Similarly, our estimate of 115 Mg/h (CI: 78–150) for 2015 CH 4 emissions for NG producing sites in Pennsylvania and West Virginia overlaps with a previous estimate by Omara et al for these sources in 2014 (144 Mg/h (CI: 70–190)). Finally, our national estimate for total CH 4 emissions from NG production sites (830 Mg/h (CI: 530–1200)) compares well with recent estimates by Alvarez et al (870 Mg/h (CI: 680–1080, Figure b) that were based on site-level measurements but utilized a different extrapolation approach incorporating parametrized nonlinear models …”
Section: Resultssupporting
confidence: 84%
Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.
show abstract
“…Although we do not have a sufficient statistical basis for a thorough quantification of other types of infrastructure, this indicates that the total CH4 emissions from the O&G infrastructure in Romania could be at least a factor 2 higher than our estimate from oil wells. Discrepancies between available inventory estimates and direct measured CH4 emissions have been indicated by numerous studies in other areas (Robertson et al, 2020;MacKay et al, 2021;Alvarez et al, 2018;Zavala-Araiza et al, 2015;Tyner and Johnson, 2021;Rutherford et al, 2021), and we now confirm this for Romania. One reason for these discrepancies is the use of outdated and highly uncertain EFs for the derivation of inventory estimates.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 84%
Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.
show abstract
“…Discrepancies between available inventory estimates and directly measured CH 4 emissions have been indicated by numerous studies in other areas (Robertson et al, 2020;MacKay et al, 2021;Alvarez et al, 2018;Zavala-Araiza et al, 2015;Tyner and Johnson, 2021;Rutherford et al, 2021), and we now confirm this discrepancy is large for Romania. One reason for these discrepancies is the use of outdated and highly uncertain EFs for the derivation of inventory estimates.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 80%
Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.
show abstract
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