Elife
 2017
DOI: 10.7554/elife.29820
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Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

José Lourenço
1
,
Maricélia Maia de Lima
2
,
Nuno R. Faria
3
et al.

Abstract: The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a signifi… Show more

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Cited by 102 publications

(81 citation statements)
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“…The estimated R 0 ðtÞ was found to oscillate due to seasonality between the values 1:1 < R 0 < 3:3, and on average was found hR 0 i ¼ 2:2. The average level and estimated range of R 0 ðtÞ are in line with previous studies [12,60,69]. Because of temperature dependence, R 0 ðtÞ reached minimum values in winters.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 90%
“…As the net growth rate of mosquitoes tends to increase as temperature increases [12,76,77], it is not surprising that our estimated p 1 > 0 (the temperature dependence parameter in m(t)) is positive. The positive association between temperature and transmissibility has also been observed in the literature [69]. Significant nonzero estimates were found for parameters p 3 and p 4 , which also control m(t), and thus the reproductive number R 0 .…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 78%
“…Continuing further, we now attempt to estimate the reporting rate of ZIKV. We argue that the reporting rate of ZIKV disease increased dramatically around February and March of 2016, as suggested also in the literature [69]. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the data for the second wave of ZIKV in 2016 is more reliable than that of the first.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 72%
See 2 more Smart Citations
Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.
show abstract
“…The estimated R 0 ðtÞ was found to oscillate due to seasonality between the values 1:1 < R 0 < 3:3, and on average was found hR 0 i ¼ 2:2. The average level and estimated range of R 0 ðtÞ are in line with previous studies [12,60,69]. Because of temperature dependence, R 0 ðtÞ reached minimum values in winters.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 90%
“…As the net growth rate of mosquitoes tends to increase as temperature increases [12,76,77], it is not surprising that our estimated p 1 > 0 (the temperature dependence parameter in m(t)) is positive. The positive association between temperature and transmissibility has also been observed in the literature [69]. Significant nonzero estimates were found for parameters p 3 and p 4 , which also control m(t), and thus the reproductive number R 0 .…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 78%
“…Continuing further, we now attempt to estimate the reporting rate of ZIKV. We argue that the reporting rate of ZIKV disease increased dramatically around February and March of 2016, as suggested also in the literature [69]. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the data for the second wave of ZIKV in 2016 is more reliable than that of the first.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 72%
See 1 more Smart Citation
Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.
show abstract
“…Nonetheless, we show that both simulation schemes can yield similar DENV dynamics and uniform attack rates of ZIKV across age classes (Supplementary Fig. 12 ), in agreement with epidemiological observations 17 and with theoretical expectations for a novel emerging pathogen.…”
Section: Methodssupporting
confidence: 85%
Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.
show abstract
“…Confirmed cases presented three CHIKV epidemic waves, characterized by a continuous reduction in total cases per year from 2016 to 2018 (Figure 1 panel C). Importantly, our estimations of transmission potential remained roughly similar throughout the years; thus suggesting that the decreasing trend in the number of confirmed cases is likely a consequence of a gradual accumulation of herdimmunity over the 4 years of continuous circulation in Bahia after its introduction in 2014; similarly to what has been described for ZIKV in Feira de Santana [5].…”
Section: Textsupporting
confidence: 78%
Exaggerated anticipatory anxiety is common in social anxiety disorder (SAD). Neuroimaging studies have revealed altered neural activity in response to social stimuli in SAD, but fewer studies have examined neural activity during anticipation of feared social stimuli in SAD. The current study examined the time course and magnitude of activity in threat processing brain regions during speech anticipation in socially anxious individuals and healthy controls (HC). Method Participants (SAD n = 58; HC n = 16) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during which they completed a 90s control anticipation task and 90s speech anticipation task.
show abstract
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