2012
Diagnosing the decline in pharmaceutical R&D efficiency
Abstract: The past 60 years have seen huge advances in many of the scientific, technological and managerial factors that should tend to raise the efficiency of commercial drug research and development (RD). Yet the number of new drugs approved per billion US dollars spent on RD has halved roughly every 9 years since 1950, falling around 80-fold in inflation-adjusted terms. There have been many proposed solutions to the problem of declining RD efficiency. However, their apparent lack of impact so far and the contrast bet…
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Cited by 1,907 publications
(1,261 citation statements)
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“…We found that relative to the semiconductor industry, firms in the pharmaceutical industry had lower R&D intensity, had lower patent intensity, and made fewer new product introductions during the time frame of our study. The trends we observed in the pharmaceutical industry are consistent with other recent findings on this industry (e.g., Scannell, Blanckley, Boldon, & Warrington, 2012). The lack of new product introductions in the pharmaceutical industry could be impacting the lack of support for Hypothesis 3.…”
Section: Limitations and Future Researchsupporting
confidence: 91%
“…We found that relative to the semiconductor industry, firms in the pharmaceutical industry had lower R&D intensity, had lower patent intensity, and made fewer new product introductions during the time frame of our study. The trends we observed in the pharmaceutical industry are consistent with other recent findings on this industry (e.g., Scannell, Blanckley, Boldon, & Warrington, 2012). The lack of new product introductions in the pharmaceutical industry could be impacting the lack of support for Hypothesis 3.…”
Section: Limitations and Future Researchsupporting
confidence: 91%
“…The decision-support integration of HAI at the stage of selecting development candidates to enter first-in-human studies could significantly increase the average clinical success rate of investigational new drugs from 7.9% 8 to 90.1% for nearly any disease 9, 10 . This result confirms that exponentially extracted knowledge alone may be sufficient to accurately predict clinical success, effecting a complete reversal of Eroom’s law 4 . The trained HAI is also the world’s first clinically validated model of human aging that could substantially speed up the discovery of preventive medicine for all age-related diseases 11 .…”
supporting
confidence: 76%
“…A few explanations for our results can be introduced. As per cancer drugs, recent reports [11,14] show findings similar to ours and predict even greater sales and market share, due to the combination between high medical need and advances in the relevant science basis [6]. Advances in scientific knowledge bases sustaining R&D activities in oncology are worth mentioning here.…”
Section: Finding the Nichesupporting
confidence: 75%
